Will a no-deal Brexit cripple our logistics industry?
Date: 4th Monday, March, 2019
If Ireland’s backstop agreement conundrum isn’t approved, a no deal Brexit is a distinct possibility. With a defiant EU unwilling to entertain further negotiations, the UK may be faced with a stark ultimatum that few openly support. For the UK’s logistics industry, this scenario sends shock waves across the community. However, trade must go on, and on it will go. The question is, how smoothly?
Such is the intertwined nature of EU membership, extracting the UK from the EU will require complex surgery and time. Fear of unknown potential consequences are being discussed at board level and stock piling of widgets and supplies are keeping the warehouse staff on high alert. Supply chains are being ‘optimised’ to adapt to unforeseen events. At the chalk face in Dover, the magnitude of the exercise is apparent. With over 10,000 lorries passing through the port each day, it wouldn’t take much of a delay to create mayhem. Of the 4.8 million transport vehicles moving between the UK and EU last year, most of which passed through Dover, HMRC only required customs clearance for around 1% of them. Some checks are undertaken away from the border negating unnecessary delays. Perhaps this model would be adopted if custom checks become a daily necessity.
But it’s not in the UK’s or the EU’s interest to interrupt this bi-directional business lifeline which would suggest that, despite the rhetoric and posturing, shooting oneself in the foot is an unwelcome and unlikely outcome. In the absence of a crystal ball, however, like so much media hype, this is just speculation and we’ll all have to wait and see – but not much longer!
